On the face of it this latest meeting is reminiscent of previous UN conferences that carried a lot of good intent but not much solid action. Indeed, similar talks from Copenhagen in 2009 had a lot of head nodding and 'calls to action' but little in the way of conclusive action. Agreements to provide $100 billion dollars a year in supporting developing nations and funding global climate adaption by 2020 look to be failing before they've really begun. So too has the idea that we can cut 80% of global fossil fuel emissions by 2050. In the end the negotiations were a political mess and any pledges made are not legally enforceable.
Whichever way you look at things it would take a good deal of confidence and optimism to expect conclusive action this time around. But in many ways these talks come at just the right moment, with the world still coming to terms with the human and financial cost of what could turn out to be the largest ever recorded storm in the Philippines. Their representative, Yeb Sano, today gave a chilling and heartfelt plea to the world;
"...It was barely 11 months ago in Doha when my delegation appealed to the world… to open our eyes to the stark reality that we face… as then we confronted a catastrophic storm that resulted in the costliest disaster in Philippine history. Less than a year hence, we cannot imagine that a disaster much bigger would come. With an apparent cruel twist of fate, my country is being tested by this hellstorm called Super Typhoon Haiyan, which has been described by experts as the strongest typhoon that has ever made landfall in the course of recorded human history. It was so strong that if there was a Category 6, it would have fallen squarely in that box. Up to this hour, we remain uncertain as to the full extent of the devastation, as information trickles in in an agonizingly slow manner because electricity lines and communication lines have been cut off and may take a while before these are restored. The initial assessment show that Haiyan left a wake of massive devastation that is unprecedented, unthinkable and horrific, affecting 2/3 of the Philippines, with about half a million people now rendered homeless, and with scenes reminiscent of the aftermath of a tsunami, with a vast wasteland of mud and debris and dead bodies. According to satellite estimates, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also estimated that Haiyan achieved a minimum pressure between around 860 mbar (hPa; 25.34 inHg) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Haiyan to have attained one-minute sustained winds of 315 km/h (195 mph) and gusts up to 378 km/h (235 mph) making it the strongest typhoon in modern recorded history. Despite the massive efforts that my country had exerted in preparing for the onslaught of this monster of a storm, it was just a force too powerful and even as a nation familiar with storms, Super Typhoon Haiyan was nothing we have ever experienced before, or perhaps nothing that any country has ever experienced before..."
- Yeb Sano addressing the UN Climate Summit in Warsaw. Source
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| Typhoon Haiyan. Source |
But the longer term returns on investing in climate mitigation are becoming increasingly apparent. Such events as 'Superstorm Sandy', whose financial bill looks to be approaching $70 billion, are making sizeable dents in national contingency funds. As awful and as costly as they are, the silver lining of events such as Sandy or Typhoon Haiyan is that they may act as essential catalysts in plugging the funding gap for climate action.
We'll have to wait until 2015 to really understand how successful the UN's latest round of talks have been. With such a profound start to these negotiations, perhaps we can start to be more optimistic.
